Russion bases in Syria and Syrian security moves

Farid Ghadry thinks Syria is making a mistake giving Russia bases in the Mediterranean. Maybe, Maybe not.

 

Of special interest. Ghadry thinks that Syria is taking precautions against the day when the US breaks off negotiations with it:

 

In preparation for that day, RPS received information that Syria's securities services has opted to insure the safety of its knowledge base, accumulated over the years on the movement of its citizenry and the intelligence the regime relies on for its survival, has been triplicated and moved to the cities of Homs and Latakiya for fear that a strike against the Syrian security apparatus in Damascus may strip it of its most potent weapons. To many, these are actions of a regime fearful for its future and not basking in the glory of its survival as some pundits claim.

Or else, it is preparation for a war with Israel.

 

Ami Isseroff

Faulty Syrian Calculations

Washington DC, August 11, 2007/RPS Opinion - Farid Ghadry/ -- The Russian Navy is attempting to establish a beachhead in the Mediterranean by striking an agreement with Damascus that along the way partially forgives Syria's debt accumulated during the Soviet era in return for a warm water port in Tartous and Latakiya.

 

 

Denials by Damascus have accompanied such claims. In reality though, Syria's isolation and its war against Iraqi democracy is costing Damascus billions. Money it can only find either through more revenues or less expenditures and in this case, Russia, in 2005, was willing to write-off $10billion worth of debt in return for Russian naval presence in Tartous and Latakiya.

 

 

Besides the money factor, Assad is dousing himself with gasoline by inviting Russia to play, once again, in the politics of the Middle East that are too reminiscent of the Cold War era. With Syria's national security compromised, Assad has taken a direction that may end-up costing him more than the fear he has of American soldiers stationed in Iraq. But do not tell this to a regime whose faulty calculations have resulted so far in four anti-Syrian/pro-Lebanon UN Resolutions, tensions on its borders with Lebanon and Israel, supporting extremists in Iraq, which resulted in tensions inside Syria as the flooding of Iraqi refugees inadvertently caused inflationary pressure on a Syrian population, under normal circumstances, unable to cope with the Ba'athist policies of depriving it from its rights to a reasonable income. All of these problems are due to miscalculations by Assad, who, by inviting Russia, has dug the hole he is in a little too deep.

 

Russia will undoubtedly deploy sophisticated air defenses around both Syrian cities that could, according to Assad's calculations, use to protect Syria from a certain future when the Iraq theater comes under scrutiny from a US military not too happy to see its assets come under attacks by Syria and Iran. What Assad is not taking into account is the unreliability of Russia as a partner when and if the US comes calling for pay day. The US knows very well what Russian conditions must be met to disengage from protecting Syrian air space or for that matter the whole Syrian regime if necessary. By playing with the big boys in a game where the stakes are a bit too high for a small country like Syria, Assad has sealed his fate by wedging himself between two giants facing each other in his own backyard. Their fight is his to absorb and their disengagement is for his regime to pay the price for.
As long as Assad remains in a defensive posture and reacting to international pressure, Damascus will continue to swallow painful pills until it no longer can sustain immunity of its corrupt system of government. Its use of the Russian naval base is just another ploy to impose its will on a Lebanon too eager to rid itself of the Assad regime and its humiliating security apparatus.

 

Meanwhile, discussions between the US and Syria on Iraq's security are on-going. Assad is hedging his bets on a complacent US State Department eager to save Iraq but not to give-up on Lebanon. When the discussions freeze at this juncture six months from now as is expected, the US will have to make the hard choices of dealing with Assad once and for all. Assad knows that too well and it explains his Russian naval play, which is his only insurance policy left against the dismantlement of his terror regime. 

 

 

In preparation for that day, RPS received information that Syria's securities services has opted to insure the safety of its knowledge base, accumulated over the years on the movement of its citizenry and the intelligence the regime relies on for its survival, has been triplicated and moved to the cities of Homs and Latakiya for fear that a strike against the Syrian security apparatus in Damascus may strip it of its most potent weapons. To many, these are actions of a regime fearful for its future and not basking in the glory of its survival as some pundits claim.

 

Cross posted: Israel News  Middle East Analysis