Middle East Analysis: Iran, not Israel, will start the war

Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Iran, not Israel, will start the war

Iran, not Israel, will start the war
By: Elias Bejjani*

April 27/10

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said yesterday: "There is no truth to insinuations that Israel is allegedly planning a move against Syria. I estimate that this is an attempt made by Iran and Hezbollah to distract the international community from the sanctions planned against Iran."

Mr. Netanyahu's short but decisive statement actually unveils the ongoing vicious Iranian scheme that is in the works. The mullahs in Iran are cunningly working day and night on the last details of a devastating war that they are planning to ignite against Israel from Lebanon through their militant terrorist proxy, Hezbollah, when the time is appropriate for them, exactly as was the case in 2006.

Meanwhile, Iran's intentions to annihilate the Jewish state are becoming bolder and more aggressive. On 18/04/2010, Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said that Israel was on its way to collapse, as Iran's military displayed a range of home-built drones and missiles at the annual Army Day parade. In a speech marking the event, Ahmadinejad also reiterated his view that the presence of foreign forces is causing conflict in the region. "The Zionist regime is on its way to collapse. This regime is the main instigator of sedition and conflict in the region," the Iranian president added. "This is the will of the regional nations that after 60 odd years, the root of this corrupt microbe and the main reason for insecurity in the region be pulled out... Its supporters and creators ought to stop backing it and allow the regional nations and the Palestinians to settle things with them," he said.

In 2006 Iran was under tremendous pressure from Western countries to halt its nuclear program or face very tough sanctions. To distract the entire world away from their program they gave orders to their Hezbollah army in Lebanon to engage the Jewish State in a war that they did without any hesitation. The war lasted for 33 days and shifted all the heat away from Iran and its suspicious nuclear activities.

In fact, Syria under President Bashar Al Assad has become an Iranian puppet and has no say in what Hezbollah in Lebanon does or does not do. Meanwhile, the current relationship between Syria's president Bashar Al Assad and Iran's president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is a replicate of the master-slave one that existed during World War II between Hitler and Mussolini where the first was in full control of the decision making process and the second just a puppet who carried out his orders with no say whatsoever.

Retired Lebanese army officer, and renowned worldwide expert on Hezbollah and terrorism, Colonel Charbel Barakat, wrote yesterday for our site, the LCCC, an analysis with the title, "Who is beating the war drums this time?" In this article he addresses the Scud missile crisis that has led to a war of rhetoric between Iran, Syria and Hezbollah on one side, and Israel and the USA on the other.

Barakat, based on his extensive first hand military and anti-terrorism expertise, strongly believes that Iran, and not Syria, is in full control all the Middle East Axis of Evil and Islamic fundamentalist terror groups' (Syria, Hamas, Hezbollah, Jihad, etc.) activities, finances, plans, leadership, cadres and decision making processes, while Hezbollah is a mere militant Iranian brigade.

In contrast to many Western analysts who have claimed that Hezbollah does not strategically need the Scud missiles due to its self defense military resistance status, Barakat said: "these claims would have been true if Hezbollah was actually Lebanese and in an actual self defense status, but it is not, and it is totally affiliated to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)".

Barakat concluded that Iran desperately wants Hezbollah to pile these Scud missiles in its arsenal because their longest range is 700 km and thus they are a must for its scheme that aims to reach Israel's nuclear plant in Demona, the Israeli Nagave airports and other vital military and civil institutions.

He added that "The Iranian improved M 600 missiles that are currently in Hezbollah's possession have a range that does not go beyond Tel Aviv, and here comes the importance of the Scud missiles that can reach locations all over Israel. The M 600 missile and the Scud both can carry a load of up to 500 kg".

Were the Scud missiles actually transferred from Syria to Hezbollah's military bases in Lebanon or not yet? Barakat played down the importance of such futile, time wasting and camouflaging rhetoric because he believes that Syria's rulers have merely become Iranian puppets and accordingly they will without a shred of a doubt transfer these missiles or any other weapons in their arsenal to Hezbollah whenever the Iranian leadership orders them to do so.

What is actually very striking and scary in Barakat's in depth analysis is his strong conviction that Iran is the one which will soon launch through its militant proxy, Hezbollah, a preemptive war against Israel's nuclear plants, before the Israelis or the US attack Iran's nuclear facilities.

Barakat stressed the pivotal role of the Scud missiles in such an Iranian war scenario and urged the Free World to take such an impending possibility into consideration and act swiftly in a bid to abort it.

He reminded all those concerned in the Middle East,US, and Europe of a possible repeat by Iran of the surprise tactics that Israel used in 1976 in which its air force attacked all of Egypt's military airports and won the war before it started. He therefore thinks the issue of the Scud missiles should be taken seriously and dealt with accordingly.

Barakat considered that all the Lebanese officials' statements with regard to the Scud smuggling crisis to be baseless and have no credibility because of Hezbollah's hegemony over the whole country including its military institutions.

*Elias Bejjani
Canadian-Lebanese Human Rights activist, journalist and political commentator
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